According to the County’s own statistics, real estate taxes for the typical household have increased from $2,407 in 2000 to $4,448 in 2006. This is a $2000 or 85 percent increase in six years.

However, the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors wants you to believe that you had a tax cut, since they cut the real estate tax rate from $1.23 in 2001 to $1.00 in 2006.

If the Supervisors had kept the rate at $1.23, the typical household’s real estate tax would have been $5,471 next year, or $1000 more than $4,448.

So in the Supervisors’ minds the taxpayers have received not a $2000 tax increase, but a $1000 tax cut!

Will you be able to afford another one of the Supervisors’ "tax cuts" for 2007?"

To completely offset the average increase in assessments since last year, the Supervisors would have had to reduce the tax rate from $1.23 to 94 cents (93.54 cents, to be more exact).

Whenever real estate tax increases accompany higher assessments, Section 58.1-3321 of the Virginia code requires counties to publish the tax rate that offsets the higher assessments and advertise the new tax rate as a tax increase.

This is a problem for the Supervisors, as it contradicts their "tax cut" spin. However it is not a big problem. The Virginia code only requires that the tax increase be published in a newspaper

ad. So the County did publish an ad, reproduced in part here, in The Washington Times, page C11, on March 17, 2005.

The ad begins by emphasizing the tax-rate reduction, from $1.23 to the advertised rate of $1.03. The 93.54-cent rate that offsets the increase in assessments is in item 2. That the $1.03 rate represents a 10.11 percent tax hike is buried in item 3.

However the 94-cent offset rate and the 10-percent tax increase are not mentioned once in the County’s

three-volume, 1500 page budget. They are not mentioned in the County’s 24-page Citizen’s Guide to the Budget, or in the County’s 13-page press release about the budget, or in the County Executive’s 50-slide budget briefing.

When the FCTA president, at the County Executive’s budget press briefing two years ago, asked what the rate was that offset the assessment increase, the answer was, "We have not done that analysis yet." The "analysis" consists of dividing the previous year’s rate by one plus the percent increase in average assessments.

When asked by the Fairfax County Taxpayers Alliance (FCTA) president to justify hiring one new staff member for every two new students, school superintendent, Dr. Jack Dale, cited higher Special Education and English as a Second Language (ESL) enrollments.

FCPS data suggest otherwise.

According to the FCPS FY2006 Approved Budget, Special Education enrollment was projected to decrease, not increase, from 12,420 to 12,299.

ESL staffing is increasing by only 20 positions, from 686 to 706. Of the 295 new positions, 55 are "staffing reserve" in case enrollment is higher than projected.

Of the school system’s 21,859 full-time positions, about 35 percent are Kindergarten-12th grade regular-classroom teachers and about 19 percent are special education teachers and assistants.

About three years ago, the Fairfax County School Board hired the Gibson Consulting Group of Austin, Texas, to assess Fairfax County Public Schools (FCPS) Special Education instruction.

Among other things, the study considered the 21 FCPS Special Education Centers. These Centers served 1,208 Special Ed students, which was about 5.2 percent to the total FCPS Special Ed population. About half of the 1,208 students were identified as emotionally disturbed.

The average cost per student in Special Ed Centers was $22,000, compared to about $8,000 per General Education Student. In the Centers were 288 teachers and 185 assistants to teach 1,208 students, meaning that there were only 2.6 students per adult instructor.

The study then looked at test scores from grade 3, 5, 8, and high school Standards of Learning tests. In only one of 62 cases did a center do better than the FCPS average. In 59 of 62 cases, centers did worse than the FCPS average and by more than 20 percentage points.

The report states, "many students with emotional disorders are very bright and have great academic potential." This was the experience of Marva Collins, a Black teacher who was forced out of Chicago public schools because she was so successful. She then opened a low-cost private school where she successfully taught emotionally disturbed children with phonics, drill, and motivational literature, all of which are lacking in public schools. At-risk children are even more at-risk with the public school curriculum.

When the Virginia General Assembly cuts taxes, it simply raises other taxes. Consider the "car tax."

In 1997, at the beginning of the "dot-com" bubble, Jim Gilmore was elected Virginia governor with the campaign slogan, "No Car Tax." This resonated with voters who dreaded paying the annual car-tax to their local governments.

Now taxpayers pay only 30 percent of their car-tax bill to their local government. The Commonwealth of Virginia pays local governments the other 70 percent, out of sales and income taxes. This costs the Commonwealth about $900 million a year.

Gilmore took advantage of the surging state tax revenues during the "dot-com" boom to cut the car tax without any spending cuts.

Gilmore’s car tax cut represented the "starve-the-beast" approach to limiting government spending. Rather than cut public schools, welfare and Medicaid, which drive up taxes, the "starve-the-beast" approach attempts to limit these programs by reducing available revenue.

The result? Taxpayers still pay the full car tax, but through higher sales taxes and payroll withholding instead of through a painful annual check.

Since 1997, the Virginia budget has increased 80 percent, from $17.6 billion to $31.6 billion. Spending per resident has increased more than twice as fast as inflation (5.5 percent vs. 2.1 percent per year). Inflation-adjusted taxes per resident have increased from $3144 in 1997 to $4225 today. The result is mediocre public schools, soaring welfare (Medicaid) costs, and crowded roads.

A Taxpayers Bill of Rights (TABOR) would limit state spending increases per resident to the growth of inflation. Last summer state Senator John Chichester, chairman of the Senate Finance Committee wrote an article opposing TABOR. Here are his key points:

"If seventy-five percent of Virginia’s general fund operating budget rests in education, Medicaid health care and public safety, is it reasonable to assume that general population and inflation are good budget proxies when actual caseload and cost experience show otherwise?" (from "Virginia is not on Automatic Pilot"; emphasis added)

This argument succeeds year after year, since no politician dares oppose the teachers’ union, welfare (prisons are an extension of welfare), or Medicaid,

The following articles in this Bulletin show that there is waste and abuse in all three programs. Sixty percent of public school students perform below grade level despite soaring funding for public schools. Welfare drives up prison population. Medicaid - and Medicare - drive up medical inflation and their out-of-control costs are driving up the national debt and threatening the economy.

The average FCPS senior scored higher than 65 percent of all seniors taking the SAT in 2005 — and scored below 35 percent of all seniors.

IMPORTANT NOTE: This does NOT mean that the FCPS average SAT percentile is lower than that of 35 percent of all school districts. The FCPS rank is unknown since the College Board does not release a list of SAT scores by school district.

The College Board, however, does not designate an "excellent" threshold for SAT scores.

Certainly the 98^th-percentile score for the Thomas Jefferson science magnet high school is excellent. Does Dr. Dale then feel that there is no significant difference in performance between Jefferson and both Robinson and Lake Braddock secondary schools, which scored near the county average?

FCPS does not publish its SAT percentiles.

FCPS boasts that 89 percent of its graduates continue their education. It is a bit more guarded about pointing out that 68 percent of seniors attend four-year colleges and 21 percent attend two-year colleges.

If 68 percent of FCPS seniors attend four-year colleges and if 68 percent of them will graduate within six years, then about 46 percent of FCPS seniors go directly to and graduate from four-year colleges.

Overall, it appears that 45 percent of freshmen at two-year public colleges will eventually graduate from four-year colleges.

If 21 percent of FCPS seniors attend two-year colleges and 45 percent of them will eventually earn four-year degrees, then almost ten percent of FCPS seniors will get four-year degrees after starting at two-year colleges.

According to the U. S. Census American Community Survey, in 2004 57 percent of Fairfax County adults had four-year college degrees, as did Montgomery County, MD, and Boulder, CO. These are the top-educated counties in the nation. Of all Americans, 27 percent have 4-year degrees.

The FCTA analysis assumes that 45 percent of seniors starting at two-year colleges will eventually earn four-year college degrees. The FCTA also assumes that of seniors starting at four-year colleges, the percent that will graduate is the high school SAT percentile divided by 100. This is because graduation rates are higher for more competitive schools.

For example Langley’s SAT percentile is 78. Therefore it is assumed that 78 percent of the Langley seniors who go directly to four-year colleges will earn four-year college degrees.

Three points are added to each school’s SAT percentile since the FCPS average SAT percentile is 65 but the average SCHEV graduation rate is 68 percent.

State Senator John Chichester justifies higher taxes by observing that prison population is growing four times faster than overall population. Did he consider that the other programs for which he wants higher taxes — public schools and welfare — are driving up the prison population?

Before the Civil War it was illegal to teach a slave to read. Just the ability to read, it was thought, would enable a slave to become independent.

Not much has changed.

Today’s public schools, despite budgets that have increased ten times faster than enrollment, are not teaching poor children how to read. (See the accompanying graphs.)

Those who are unable to read are trapped in poverty and dependence on welfare. Welfare encourages fatherless homes by providing free housing, food, childcare, and medical care (Medicaid) to unmarried mothers. With the growth of welfare, out-of-wedlock births among Blacks and Whites have increased dramatically.

Blacks are particularly hard hit, and, a disproportionate number of Black males go to prison. Whereas Black males are nine percent of Virginia’s adult population, they make up 60 percent of Virginia’s prison population. A 2001 Department of Justice study predicted that one in three Black males will spend time in prison, compared to one in 17 Whites.

This is not an issue of race; it is an issue government-induced poverty. A May 24, 2001, Heritage Foundation press release reports that after adjusting for family structure, there is no difference between poverty rates for Whites and Blacks

Rather than raise taxes, Senator Chichester should emancipate the welfare plantation, first through school choice so low-income children can attend schools where they can learn how to read.

Both Marva Collins, who founded her Westside Preparatory School in inner-city Chicago, and Seigfried Englemann, who developed the Direct Instruction reading program, have shown that poor children can learn. Both are phonics-based.

Public schools have resisted phonics for nearly a century. Low-income children do not learn how to read and give up on school by fourth grade.

Medicaid is three different welfare programs in one: nursing homes for the elderly poor, support for disabled persons, and medical care for low-income mothers and children. It is also one of the fastest growing items in state budgets, including Virginia.

States pay half the cost of Medicaid, while the federal government pays the other half.

The federal government can afford Medicaid because the federal government does not have to balance its budget. Unlike states and counties it can and does borrow to cover operating expenses.

As the accompanying table shows, three federal entitlements — Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security — consume 49 percent of the federal budget. Medicare provides medical insurance to the elderly.

Two more programs, defense (including veterans) and interest on the debt, account for another 38 percent. Therefore most of what we associate with government — Justice, Interior, State, NASA, Agriculture, Education, etc. — account for only 13 percent, or $320 billion, of the federal budget.

The deficit, which is the shortfall between tax revenues and spending, is over $300 billion. If entitlements are off-limits then eliminating the deficit would require cutting defense by 50 percent or entirely eliminating all non-defense programs.

Those who enjoy entitlements can thank the Japanese and Chinese, who buy our debt instead of our cars. Of the $7.4 trillion public debt half is owned by government agencies, such as Social Security, and half by the public. Of the half held by the public, 44 percent is held by foreign investors, including governments, up from five percent in 1970.

The population explosion has hit, but it is an implosion, not an explosion. Today there are only three workers per Social Security recipient whereas in 1950 there were 16. Furthermore today’s workers have to pay for Medicare and Medicaid, whose costs will eventually dwarf Social Security.

High taxes and generous entitlements for the elderly discourage childbearing. The USA birth rate is just below the replacement level.

Our future is Europe today, whose generous entitlements result in high taxes, stagnant economies, high unemployment, and dwindling native populations. Western Europe’s birth rate is 1.5, compared to the replacement rate of 2.1. Immigrants fill the void.

Government healthcare is easy to abuse. Medicaid nursing home care is supposed to be for the poor. However, with the right lawyer, affluent couples can qualify. Because Medicaid has no co-pay, there is frivolous use of scarce medical resources. Medicaid and Medicare paperwork and fraud drive up costs. Major medical insurers are now basing reimbursement fees on the Medicare reimbursement schedule. Government regulation means that the market no longer determines medical costs.

Government entitlements are not the solution. Rather, they aggravate the problems they are supposed to solve.

The featured speaker was Patrick M. McSweeney, President of the Virginia Conservative Alliance and former chairman of the Republican Party of Virginia. Mr. McSweeney was active in the defeat of the 2002 Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads sales tax referenda.

He brought extensive experience with state government, having also served as the executive director of the Virginia Commission on State Governmental Management, as counsel to the Governor's Management Study, and as a staff attorney to the Taxation and Finance Committee of the Virginia Commission on Constitutional Revision.

In his remarks, Mr. McSweeney advocated private funding, through tolls, of major transportation projects. Government control of transportation unavoidably results in pork-barrel spending to win the votes of enough legislators to pass a bill. His prime example was 17 miles of Rt. 228, outside of Richmond, which cost $400 million. He also warned against Public-Private partnerships, which break down the accountability of private contractors and replace it with cozy government relationships that result in the taxpayer bailing out private overruns.

John Taylor, president of the Virginia Institute for Public Policy spoke on behalf of the Virginia Prosperity and Freedom Agenda. This agenda includes a Taxpayers Bill of Rights (TABOR) to limit, by a new constitutional amendment, state spending increases to the rate of population growth and inflation. It also would base property taxes on acquisition value, not current value, and limit annual assessment increases to two percent.

Mr. McSweeney cautioned that constitutional amendments are no longer an effective defense against activist judges, and that the only assurance of responsible government is through watchdog organizations like the FCTA.

At the meeting, Thomas Barthelemy, David Swink, Marie Schumacher, Brad Butler, and Chuck McAndrew were re-elected as FCTA district directors.

Republican House of Delegate candidates Chris Craddock and Jim Hyland (running in the 67th and 35 districts) took time out from their busy campaign schedules to speak at the luncheon.

Updated March 9, 2006